Authored by Elisie Kåresdotter, Postdoc at KTH Royal Institute of Technology, based on her multi-year experience working with water conflict, cooperation, and climate adaptation in various contexts around the globe.
As climate change intensifies, so does the pressure on one of our most essential resources: water. Around the world, communities are grappling with increasing risks to water availability, threatening not only ecosystems and livelihoods but also peace. Yet within these challenges lie opportunities for cooperation, resilience, and innovative solutions. In fact, it has been more common to cooperate when faced with water-related challenges throughout history. Despite current events, such as in India and Pakistan, water wars have been rare throughout history and are unlikely. Most water conflicts are non-violent, such as protests or threats of withdrawing an agreement or building a dam that could negatively affect downstream water flows. However, low-intensity local conflicts are becoming more common, which could be linked to more and more people living with water challenges. It is estimated that around half of the world’s population currently suffers from high water stress at least one month per year, threatening secure delivery of water, food, health, jobs, and energy. As such, it becomes paramount to understand the complex relationship between water conflicts and cooperation, and how climate adaptation strategies can help shape more peaceful futures.
Water and Conflict: A Rising Tide
Data from recent decades shows a worrying trend: water-related conflicts are increasing, particularly within countries. Meanwhile, cooperation over water has declined. This trend is particularly pronounced in parts of Africa and Asia, where climate extremes and rapid socio-economic changes collide.
But these conflicts are rarely about water alone. They’re often entangled with other factors, such as governance, economic hardship, and population pressure. By looking at what is written about these conflicts in newspapers and scientific publications and comparing them to important factors, such as changes in rainfall, evaporation, population size and density, and the number and types of dams in rivers, we can start to understand why conflicts over water have grown in recent years and the regional differences.
In Africa, many recent conflicts have occurred alongside droughts and issues with water infrastructure. This region is unique globally because Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where access to safe drinking water has decreased since 2000. The rise in conflicts can, at least partly, be attributed to climate change, since droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. This creates challenges for the people who rely on farming or herding livestock for their livelihoods. Inadequate water infrastructure and sustainable water management practices, especially in marginalized communities, together with cultural differences, land tenure security, and economic inequalities, worsen the issues and increase the risk of future conflicts unless addressed.
Figure 2. Locations of historic water conflicts (top) and cooperation (bottom) with internal (within countries) events shown in lighter colors and transboundary (between countries) events shown in darker colors.
Figure 3. Rates of when a cooperation event led to no future conflicts in the next five years. Light blue colors mean that cooperation has been successful in reducing all conflicts in the following years, while brown to orange colors mean that the country still had conflicts even after cooperation was established.
In Asia, tensions have intensified over irrigation and dam construction. Here, many rivers run across multiple countries, requiring nations to work together to limit tension and prevent conflict between upstream and downstream regions. Ironically, while dams are intended to improve water supply for drinking and agriculture and manage river flow, they can reduce water availability by increasing evaporation. Building new dams can threaten water security and spark disputes with downstream communities. Existing water agreements often lack flexibility, making it difficult to adapt to changes in water flow due to increased populations, industrial and energy demand, and climate change. This increases competition among nations and sectors, potentially worsening unfair water distribution and escalating tensions.
Researchers have focused mainly on water conflicts in Africa and parts of Asia. As lessons from one region might not apply to another, we know less about how conflicts evolve and can be reduced in other parts of the world. This becomes especially problematic for regions with emerging issues, highlighting a need for more research covering diverse topics to minimize future security risks.
Cooperation: More Than a Peace Treaty
Encouragingly, cooperation works. Our analysis shows that water-related cooperation can significantly reduce the risk of future conflict, especially when it’s more than symbolic and when combinations of different cooperation are used. For example, suppose several different cooperation strategies are used, such as combining water treaties or agreements with the sharing of technology (for example, joint modeling of water allocation) and joint planning of adaptation strategies. In that case, it can create stronger and more effective collaboration compared to when fewer cooperation strategies exist between two or more actors sharing water resources. Further, cooperation can provide positive benefits beyond regional stability and improved resilience, especially in less affluent countries, through slight increases in exports and GDP.
Yet not all cooperation is created equal. Cooperation has a greater potential to prevent conflict in areas with low water stress than high water stress, even if the effect is still strong for high water stress areas. Still, regional differences matter. What works in South America will likely not work in East Africa. This points to the need for locally tailored, multi-pronged strategies for managing water and building trust and resilience.
Nature-Based Solutions: A Potential Path Forward
One promising way to tackle issues like extreme climate events, water scarcity, and water quality problems is through nature-based solutions (NbS). These are strategies that work with natural systems, rather than trying to control them. By restoring natural feasures such as wetlands, ponds, and floodplains, we can reduce the risk of flooding, boost groundwater recharge, and retain water to help during drought. Additionally, these solutions can enhance biodiversity and provide social and recreational benefits, such as cooling urban areas and reducing pollution.
Traditional technical solutions, often called “gray solutions”, can be too expensive in low-income settings. In these settings, NbS provides a cost-effective alternative to adapt to climate extremes and address underlying causes of conflict, such as access, inequality, and environmental degradation. NbS can be small-scale projects that help improve water management and resilience, strengthen ecosystem health, and encourage community engagement and cooperation. By doing so, they help tackle environmental and societal factors contributing to conflicts.
Charting the Course for Future Water Resilience
Water challenges do not have to lead to conflicts. Choices in governments, investments, corporations, and among individuals shape them. As we confront these complex challenges, it’s clear that the path forward requires innovation, collaboration, and adaptability. By understanding the dynamics between water conflicts and cooperation, we can develop strategies that prevent disputes and foster peace. Nature-based solutions offer a compelling way to address water-related issues, harnessing the power of nature to increase resilience and security, particularly in the face of climate change.
However, realizing this vision and creating locally adapted solutions requires action and communication between all sectors. By sharing knowledge, we can start to transform challenges into opportunities, strengthen cooperation, and adopt innovative practices. Because in a rapidly changing climate, the question isn’t just how we manage water. It’s how we manage and communicate with each other.
Links and publications
Kåresdotter et al., (2025). Water conflicts under climate change: Research gaps and priorities
Download the global dataset on water conflict and cooperation: https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.7465153
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