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Fanny Bergström: Flexible Bayesian Nowcasting — Application to fatalities with COVID-19 in Sweden

Time: Fri 2022-03-11 13.15 - 14.15

Location: Kräftriket, House 5, Room 32

Lecturer: Fanny Bergström (Stockholm University)

Abstract

The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data, e.g., time-series of reported cases or fatalities, can help to understand the current state and dynamics of a pandemic. This task is challenged by reporting delays that give rise to occurred-but-not-yet-reported events. Nowcasting methods aim to provide close to real-time estimates of the complete number of events using the incomplete time-series of currently observed events and information on the reporting delay from the past. In this project, we consider Nowcasting the number of deaths with Covid-19 in Sweden.