Zandra Bernergård: Statistical Modelling of Occurred-but-not-yet-reported-events: Reporting of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

Abstract:

During COVID-19 the number of total deaths has been reported differently in different countries. Most often when a death occurs there is a delay between the time of death and the actual reporting of the death. A consequence of this is that the number of deaths for the most recent dates are yet partly unknown. Now casting is used to predict the total number of death that has occurred at a specific date, including the ones still unknown, based on already observed data. The similarities to the claims reserving within insurance business are many. Methods usually applied within claims reserving such as Mack (1993) and GLM introduced in Hastie and Tibshirani (1986) will be used to forecast COVID-19 deaths.