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Tom Britton: Epidemic modelling during COVID-19: some selected topics

Tid: On 2021-11-10 kl 15.15 - 16.00

Plats: Kräftriket, house 6, room 306

Medverkande: Tom Britton (SU)

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Abstract

In the seminar I describe three research problems on which I have been working (together with several collaborators). First I will explain why the disease-induced herd-immunity level is lower than the vaccine induced herd-immunity level. Then the generation time distribution (GTD) which is defined as the (random) duration between getting infected and infecting others. Knowledge about GTD is used when estimating the current/daily reproduction number, but it is usually not taken into account that the GTD becomes shorter when certain preventive measures (such as contact tracing) are introduced. We end with a new result for an optimization problem: consider the basic SIR epidemic and suppose we can insert preventive measures reducing contacts by p(t) at t, subject to an overall ''cost'' not exceeding c. Which preventive measure subject to this constraint minimizes the final fraction getting infected?