IV2033 Decision and Risk Analysis 7.5 credits

Beslut och riskanalys

Level: Advanced

Offering and execution

Course offering missing for current semester as well as for previous and coming semesters

Course information

Content and learning outcomes

Course contents *

The course consists of six parts.
Part 1: Decision trees
Part 2: Influence diagrams
Part 3: Sensitivity analysis
Part 4: Representation of uncertainty
Part 5: Value of information
Part 6: Multi criteria problems

Intended learning outcomes *

The overall aim with the course is to give basic knowledge on applied decision theory and decision analysis, skills to structure and evaluate decision problems, and ability to analyse and judge different solutions.
After course completion, the student should be able to
- describe and handle different risk and decision theoretic concepts and models
- model and evaluate simple decision problems
- handle problems with multiple criteria
- elicit and handle model parameters
at a basic level. Further, the student should fulfil at least two of the above goals at a higher level.

Course Disposition

Parts 1 and 2 introduce the basic terminology and mechanisms for structured decision analysis, and decision problems are modelled with some traditional models, trees and influence diagrams. Further, the decision situations are evaluated by introducing probabilities, values, and weights. Basic decision rules and sensitivity analyses are discussed in part 3. In parts 4 to 6 the knowledge is expanded with regard to probabilities (part 4), value of information (part 5), and weights (part 6).

Literature and preparations

Specific prerequisites *

Basic prerequisites at master's level (bachelor's degree).

Recommended prerequisites

No information inserted

Equipment

No information inserted

Literature

Preliminary:

Robert T. Clemen: Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (Upplaga: 2nd edition), Duxbury, 1996

Examination and completion

Grading scale *

A, B, C, D, E, FX, F

Examination *

  • INL1 - Assignment, 3.0 credits, Grading scale: P, F
  • SEM1 - Seminars, 1.5 credits, Grading scale: P, F
  • TEN1 - Examination, 3.0 credits, Grading scale: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F

Based on recommendation from KTH’s coordinator for disabilities, the examiner will decide how to adapt an examination for students with documented disability.

The examiner may apply another examination format when re-examining individual students.

The course examination consists of three parts: assignments, seminars and written exam

Other requirements for final grade *

The student needs to pass all three parts of examination, i.e., assignments, seminars and the written exam.

Final course grade is based on the grade of the written exam. 

Opportunity to complete the requirements via supplementary examination

No information inserted

Opportunity to raise an approved grade via renewed examination

No information inserted

Examiner

Anders Västberg

Further information

Course web

Further information about the course can be found on the Course web at the link below. Information on the Course web will later be moved to this site.

Course web IV2033

Offered by

ICT/Systems Science (SU)

Main field of study *

No information inserted

Education cycle *

Second cycle

Add-on studies

No information inserted

Contact

Majlender, Peter pmajlend@dsv.su.se 08-161692

Ethical approach *

  • All members of a group are responsible for the group's work.
  • In any assessment, every student shall honestly disclose any help received and sources used.
  • In an oral assessment, every student shall be able to present and answer questions about the entire assignment and solution.

Supplementary information

http://www.dsv.su.se/~mad/IB7180