HM2004 Practical Statistics 7,5 hp

The largest part is learning how to use Stochastic Simulation for risk analysis and predictions. The risk methods like Fault Tree, Failure Mode Effect Analysis are taught as well as Two-level multi-factor Design of Experiments using statistical methods and an orthogonal matrix.

A vital part of the content is the translation of collected data into the possible statistical distribution to be used in the stochastic simulation.

The aim is to give the participants the ability to use statistics and related areas in an advanced form for predictions and risk analysis as input for decisions.

The participant is expected after the study course to be able to:

• Select proper distributions for the stochastic  simulation from available data
• Make stochastic simulation models using Monte Carlo technique
• Explain what the simulation result is revealing about risk and opportunity
• Use the most common qualitative risk analysis methods as a complement to the numerical
• Make a complete risk analysis using both qualitative and quantitative data
• Use statistical design of experiments to evaluate multi-factorial dependencies in the risk analysis and the predictions

Write risk analysis reports which also laymen can

Having basic knowledge in Mathematical Statistics and be eligible to the programme TPLVM

Schuyler, John (2001 or later), Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, PMI

Handouts and compendium in Monte Carlo technique

När kurs inte längre ges har student möjlighet att examineras under ytterligare två läsår.

• TEN1 - Examination, 3,0 hp, betygsskala: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F
• ÖVN1 - Group Tasks, 4,5 hp, betygsskala: P, F

Examinator beslutar, baserat på rekommendation från KTH:s handläggare av stöd till studenter med funktionsnedsättning, om eventuell anpassad examination för studenter med dokumenterad, varaktig funktionsnedsättning.

Examinator får medge annan examinationsform vid omexamination av enstaka studenter.

TEN1 – Written examination 3 ECTS credits (A – E, Fx and F)

ÖVN1 – Group Assignments 4,5 ECTS credits (P, F)

Both TEN1 and ÖVN1 must be finished and closed to get the final grade which is dependant on the quality of both assignments and the written examination

Group tasks as computer-based problem solving using Excel and @RISK. 4,5 cr.
Written examination 3 cr.
Marks:
A-F in accordance with the ordinary system of KTH

Albin Eriksson Östman

• Vid grupparbete har alla i gruppen ansvar för gruppens arbete.
• Vid examination ska varje student ärligt redovisa hjälp som erhållits och källor som använts.
• Vid muntlig examination ska varje student kunna redogöra för hela uppgiften och hela lösningen.