Course contents *
1. The process of 3E modeling:
- Why model?
- The role of scenarios and assumptions (forecasting, back casting etc…) and the importance of transparency
- Relationship between modeling and action (policy / investment formulation / technology development)
Examples of ‘good practice’ including stakeholder communication, etc.
Information flows between and organization of:
- technology characterization and data collection efforts,
- the modeling analysis
decision / policy makers
- Where does modeling fit?
- Developing economically / thermodynamically / physically consistent scenarios.
- Short, medium and long term analysis and the role thereof
- Single / multi-comodity (e.g. power system expansion vs the water-food-energy nexus)
- Small scale (with a village electrification) vs large (global energy assessments)
- Socio-economic vs physical focus (e.g. welfare maximization vs resource efficiency)
2. Modeling - types and tools
Number crunching / thought experiment practice (how-to)
- Defining the questions
- The best approach given data, modeling and other constraints
- A series of small spreadsheet model examples of stereo-types (the student will be expected to build these simple models with guidance)
(based on GDP, population, output projections * service intensities * appliance/equipment efficiency etc)
- Energy service to supply analysis with emissions. 1staccounting, then cost optimal, then multi-objective.
- Input-Output economic model with energy system representation
- CGE model with energy system representation
- Econometric model with price response
- A multi-resource (Climate, Land, Energy and Water CLEW) model
- Assessment of the information requirements, model scope and outputs: especially with regard to limitations.
3. Policy, technology, economic and other questions:
- How they have technology and policy assessments (typically) been modeled? (With illustrative standard examples: Investment portfolios, technology R&D programs, RE and EE standards, energy security, GHG mitigation cost curves etc.)
- Technology and system characterization:
- Resource characterization
- End-use and services
- Conventional technologies
- Technologies and dispatching:
- Variable and intermittent generation; Storage; Hydro; Demand response and smart grids
- Interaction with the macro-economy
- Interaction with the environment and other resource systems (materials, water, etc)
- System integration and hybridization
Strengths and insights to be gained by different models, scenarios and processes (i.e. a
CGE gives economy wide insights, but limited technology deployment information
An accounting framework is useful for reconciling differing non-optimal views, but not good at developing ‘best fit’ trade-offs Etc…)
4. An introduction to selected ‘off the shelf tools’
- Introduction and aim
- Standard cost minimizing application
- Applications that developing new functionality