Course contents

1.      3E modelling process

• Why model?
• How scenarios and assumptions (forecasting, backcasting etc) matter and the importance of transparency
• Relationship between modelling and measure (policy/investment formulation/technical development)

Examples of ‘good practice’ including the communication with stakeholders etc

Information flows between and organisation of:

Technology evaluation and data collection

Modelling analysis

Stakeholders

Decision maker/policy maker

• Modelling adaptation
• Development of consistent scenarios considering financial, thermodynamic and physical criteria
• Short, medium and long term analyses and their role
• Single and multiple trade goods (extension of power generation versus water-food-energy nexus)
• Small-scale (electrification in rural areas) versus large-scale (global energy evaluations)
• Socio-economic versus physical focus (e g the welfare versus resource management)

1.      Modelling - type and tools

Data processing/intellectual experiments

·         Definition of issues

·         Best approach considering limitations in data, modelling and other aspects

Applications (example)

·         Different simple typical examples with spreadsheets (the student should be able to build these unaided)

Estimate of demand (based on GDP, population, output estimates * service intensity * equipment efficiency)

Energy services give analysis with emissions. Preliminary estimate, then cost optimisation, then multi-target functions.

Input-output economic model with the energy system represented

CGE model with the energy system represented

Econometric model with price response

Multi-resource (CLEW, climate-land-energy-water) model

Evaluation of needs for information, model extent and output, particularly considering the limitations

3. Policy, technology, finance and other questions

·         How have technology and policy evaluations been modelled? (With illustrative standard examples: investment portfolio, R&D program, RE and EE standard, energy safety, cost graphs for greenhouse emissions etc)

·         Technology and system characterisation:

Resource characterisation

Transformation

End usage and service

Technology and delivery

Varying and periodic generation: storing; hydro; response to demand and smart grids

Interaction with the macroeconomics

Interaction with the environment and other resources (matter, water etc)

System integration and hybrids

Strengths and insights emanating from different models, scenarios and processes (e g CGA gives understanding of the finance with limited information about the technology implementation; computational frameworks can be used to adjust different non-optimal proposals, but cannot develop the best balances; etc)

4. introduction of certain ‘off the shelf’ tools

OSeMOSYS

·         Background and aim

·         Standard cost minimisation

·         Applications for development of new functionality

Other tools should be presented.

Intended learning outcomes

After passing the course, the student should be able to:

• Describe well-established methods for energy system modelling and scenario analysis and identify their key benefits and limitations
• Write a problem formulation for linear optimisation connected to energy system analysis
• Apply a chosen energy system modelling tools for the analysis of stylised long-term energy planning problems
•  Analyse different selected energy system cases and summarise insights in an appropriate manner, based on limited and uncertain information
• Include a basic representation of the connections between climate, land use, energy and water in an energy system model

Course Disposition

No information inserted

Specific prerequisites

Technical education with mathematics, finance or the equivalent

Recommended prerequisites

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Equipment

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Literature

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If the course is discontinued, students may request to be examined during the following two academic years.

Grading scale

A, B, C, D, E, FX, F

Examination

• PRO1 - Project 1, 1,5 hp, betygsskala: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F
• PRO2 - Project 2, 1,5 hp, betygsskala: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F
• PRO3 - Project 3, 1,5 hp, betygsskala: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F
• PRO4 - Project 4, 1,5 hp, betygsskala: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F

Based on recommendation from KTH’s coordinator for disabilities, the examiner will decide how to adapt an examination for students with documented disability.

The examiner may apply another examination format when re-examining individual students.

Opportunity to complete the requirements via supplementary examination

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Opportunity to raise an approved grade via renewed examination

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Examiner

Viktoria Martin

Ethical approach

• All members of a group are responsible for the group's work.
• In any assessment, every student shall honestly disclose any help received and sources used.
• In an oral assessment, every student shall be able to present and answer questions about the entire assignment and solution.

Course web

Further information about the course can be found on the Course web at the link below. Information on the Course web will later be moved to this site.

Offered by

ITM/Energy Technology

Main field of study

Mechanical Engineering

Education cycle

Second cycle

Add-on studies

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