Determinants and deterrents of urban cycling: evidence from Europe

QC 20251112

Abstract

Urban cycling contributes to climate-neutral and resilient mobility, and its uptake hinges on a blend of behavioural, environmental, and infrastructural forces. This licentiate thesis brings together evidence from three empirical studies conducted in Braga, Istanbul, and Tallinn (papers A and B), as well as Paris and Barcelona (paper C) to identify and quantify drivers of cycling and to translate findings into insights that matter for policy. The first paper shows that a GPS-verified, gamified reward scheme, involving roughly 1,500 participants increased weekday cycling. The second paper applied mixed ordinal probit models to six months of data from the same reward scheme and finds that higher wind speeds and private-car ownership reduce weekly cycling, whereas public-transport use boosts it. The third paper employs ARIMAX time-series models of bicycle counts and identifies a pandemic step change, accounting for about 35,000 added bicycle trips per week in Paris and 26,000 trip per week in Barcelona. It also finds the added effects of infrastructure initiatives and lockdown stringency. The three studies highlight three overarching drivers of cycling: behavioral incentives, environmental conditions, and rapid-built infrastructure. These factors contribute to explaining when, where, and for whom cycling gains materialize. This thesis contributes with robust multi-city evidence, suggesting that targeted rewards, wind-protected lane design, car-access management, and transit integration can speed up modal shifts. It provides guidance to sustain and grow urban cycling across diverse city contexts, aligned with European climate goals.

urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-372493