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Tom Britton: Mathematical modelling of infectious disease outbreaks

Time: Wed 2020-03-04 15.15 - 16.15

Location: Kräftriket, house 5, room 15

Participating: Tom Britton, Stockholm University

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Mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases are used to: better understand spreading mechanisms, determine if a big outbreak is likely to occur and how big it will be, determine if a disease will become endemic, and investigate how various preventive measures can reduce spreading hopefully preventing a major pandemic outbreak or make an endemic disease vanish. Making inference is harder than usual in that the basic events, transmissions, are rarely observed but instead proxies like onset of symptoms are recorded, and also by the fact that these events are dependent rather than independent (as is usually the case). In the talk I will give an overview of the area with particular focus on emergning outbreaks, with illustrations on the current Corona virus outbreak.