Professor of Mathematical Statistics
The price trend of a share, the number of infected individuals in a disease epidemic or the time to download a file from a data server are examples of random events. They can all be described mathematically using what are known as stochastic processes. Calculations with stochastic processes are done to compute the risk that a financial portfolio decreases in value or that the number of people infected exceeds the current level of readiness.
Henrik Hult’s research is focused on mathematical methods for the analysis of extreme values and design of stochastic simulation methods for the calculation of the probability of extreme values. A basic example is calculating the expected winnings in roulette by following a complex strategy. It is possible in principle, but the calculations quickly become too extensive for even the fastest computers. A simple alternative is to write a computer program that simulates the outcome of the roulette wheel. By taking the average over many simulations, a good estimate is obtained of the expected winnings.